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Sunday, March 27, 2011

Canada Votes : Will the e-President poll work for Canada?


It's time to start the guessing game, spin the stories, and generally enjoy the wonderful world of Canadian politics!  This is what the political junkies live for, it's also the fodder of policy wonks around the World.  This is why we love politics.  There's joy in the campaign for the vote!

First across the line, that's what matters in an election.  Simple enough.  But the tactics and strategies are stuff of military precision.  Strengths and weakness are analyzed, multiple strategists argue their points until an battle plan has been agreed upon.  This is the part political parties can control.  It is, essentially, a political order of battle plan.  People don't like military terms applied to political campaigns, but make no mistake about it, the campaigns that are won are those with the best planning, the best team, the best logistics, the best finances, and finally, they have to have the best candidates.  Star power isn't enough, there has to be a team.

Now that the campaigns have been launched by all the major parties, you can decide for yourself, which party seems to have the best presence right out of the cyberspace gates.  Check it out for yourself.  This tells us who was ready, who had the organization, who had the funding... all the stuff a party needs to prepare for an election.  

Conservative Party of Canada

Liberal Party of Canada

NDP

Green Party of Canada

Le Bloc Québécois


The next component is the fluid changing tide of the public conversation and news.  The public will bring issues to the forefront that nobody has thought of yet, and how the candidates react is the very essence of the magic that happens when the politicians step "outside the message".  It happens in every election.

In the last U.S. Presidential election, I invented a fun tool designed to measure the *cool* factor.  It is a poll that looks at how much money people are willing to pay to have a piece of the candidate.  The more items for sale the larger the demand.  If the market has a larger demand AND a higher price, it's a hands down winner. 
 
The fascinating part is that it had a 100% predictability record in the last U.S. election.  After noticing the poll performed flawlessly in the primaries, I deployed it on the Republican and Democratic leadership races, again, it performed flawlessly.  And yes, it predicted the Presidency as well.  You can't say it's scientific because there's way too many subjective data points.  I'll devise a more robust version this year.  We have to weed through a lot of subjective data, but sometimes that data can be interesting... like domain squatting.  
I think we need to figure in some social media presence along with the cool factor to make it a more robust tool.  Your ideas on how we best quantify the twitterverse and facebook would be greatly appreciated.  It's in your wheelhouse!

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